tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2462 at 14:18, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2462 Delta Flight history → VPS 14:18 MSP 17:12 13% 5% 4.2% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 6h 50m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090 5h 31m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:07DL 2825 6h 46m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:14 → CLT 09:58AA 2185 2h 39m Charlotte CLT 12:37 → MSP 14:23AA 1671 7h 09m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:56 → ATL 17:15DL 2832 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 19:06 → MSP 20:46DL 2654 5h 50m 93% 71%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:58 → MSP 14:32AA 1668 8h 02m 97% 70%
AmericanDetails → VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501 3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149 8h 24m 96% 52%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:51 → MSP 21:21AA 2806 5h 48m 73% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON