tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → ORD 12:27DL 2894 5h 27m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462 3h 03m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → ORD 21:52DL 1563 7h 34m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:14 → CLT 09:58AA 2185 1h 03m Charlotte CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19AA 2908 5h 05m 88% 69%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 13:13 → ORD 14:25DL 1477 5h 04m 94% 66%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:14 → ATL 13:34DL 2048 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 5h 58m 98% 65%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560 2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:30 → ORD 13:58AA 1285 7h 28m 96% 65%
AmericanDetails → VPS 18:08 → CLT 20:57AA 5201 · flown by PSA 1h 38m Charlotte CLT 22:35 → ORD 23:36AA 627 5h 28m 91% 63%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:56 → ATL 17:15DL 2832 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 19:31 → ORD 20:41DL 1139 5h 45m 95% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON