Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3483 Southwest	VPS 09:55	STL 11:50	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 334 Southwest	VPS 13:54	STL 16:00	10%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566	5h 30m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462	3h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → STL 22:03DL 1609	7h 45m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → STL 14:27DL 2700	5h 06m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:14 → ATL 13:34DL 2048	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543	5h 25m	98%	80%
American Details →	VPS 07:14 → CLT 09:58AA 2185	2h 15m Charlotte	CLT 12:13 → STL 13:10AA 3096	5h 56m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:56 → ATL 17:15DL 2832	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → STL 20:37DL 2833	5h 41m	96%	72%
American Details →	VPS 18:08 → CLT 20:57AA 5201 · flown by PSA	1h 59m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → STL 23:58AA 459	5h 50m	94%	72%
American Details →	VPS 12:18 → DFW 14:35AA 2460	2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:20 → STL 19:15AA 2487	6h 57m	96%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON