Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 44 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1459 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 1459 DCA 06:41 → MDW 07:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4307 BWI 17:03 → ORD 18:22 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1459 Southwest	DCA 06:41	MDW 07:45	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1067 Southwest	BWI 06:30	MDW 07:32	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
YX 4541 Republic	DCA 00:03	ORD 01:09	6%	3%	1.1%	no record
UA 1793 United Flight history →	DCA 06:30	ORD 07:46	7%	2%	0.9%	92%
YX 4596 Republic	BWI 06:00	ORD 07:25	7%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 1504 Southwest	DCA 09:20	MDW 10:24	8%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1225 Southwest	DCA 15:42	MDW 16:50	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2276 Southwest	BWI 09:45	MDW 10:50	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1426 Southwest	DCA 13:02	MDW 14:10	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 1775 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	ORD 09:36	11%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 1252 United Flight history →	IAD 10:30	ORD 11:52	11%	5%	0.6%	92%
UA 2691 United	IAD 05:53	ORD 06:49	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2774 United Flight history →	DCA 09:30	ORD 10:50	11%	4%	1.2%	94%
WN 818 Southwest	DCA 18:42	MDW 19:50	12%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 523 American Flight history →	DCA 06:32	ORD 07:39	13%	4%	1.4%	78%
WN 853 Southwest	BWI 15:10	MDW 16:20	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1367 United	BWI 06:22	ORD 07:42	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 522 American	DCA 08:43	ORD 10:01	15%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2633 American Flight history →	DCA 07:45	ORD 09:00	16%	4%	1.0%	87%
UA 2331 United Flight history →	IAD 13:15	ORD 14:29	17%	8%	0.6%	81%
AA 488 American	DCA 20:27	ORD 21:51	18%	7%	1.2%	no record
UA 2749 United Flight history →	BWI 08:16	ORD 09:30	18%	6%	0.6%	86%
WN 1072 Southwest	BWI 17:45	MDW 18:55	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 808 American Flight history →	DCA 11:33	ORD 12:44	19%	5%	1.0%	90%
YX 4758 Republic	BWI 18:16	ORD 19:40	19%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 351 United Flight history →	DCA 10:19	ORD 11:22	20%	5%	0.9%	88%
AA 2023 American Flight history →	DCA 10:20	ORD 11:31	20%	6%	1.1%	81%
AA 1637 American Flight history →	DCA 16:02	ORD 17:22	20%	9%	1.2%	74%
UA 421 United	IAD 22:15	ORD 23:13	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 3148 American	DCA 18:27	ORD 19:50	21%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BWI 11:27	ORD 12:36	22%	5%	0.9%	79%
UA 511 United Flight history →	DCA 13:10	ORD 14:19	22%	6%	0.8%	76%
UA 249 United	BWI 11:49	ORD 13:02	23%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 1221 American	DCA 14:57	ORD 16:09	23%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 2284 American	DCA 13:45	ORD 14:56	23%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 1703 United	IAD 16:05	ORD 17:06	24%	9%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4253 Envoy	BWI 13:43	ORD 14:55	25%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 2148 United Flight history →	DCA 17:59	ORD 19:08	26%	7%	1.0%	51%
AA 1189 American Flight history →	DCA 17:03	ORD 18:24	27%	8%	1.2%	61%
UA 654 United Flight history →	DCA 17:10	ORD 18:19	29%	8%	0.9%	50%
UA 2497 United Flight history →	IAD 17:42	ORD 18:50	33%	8%	0.6%	48%
UA 1223 United	BWI 18:58	ORD 20:09	33%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 590 United Flight history →	BWI 17:32	ORD 18:55	35%	9%	0.6%	57%
F9 4307 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 17:03	ORD 18:22	35%	11%	1.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON