Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2196 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 2196 DCA 06:04 → DAL 08:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2775 BWI 14:11 → DFW 16:35 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2196 Southwest	DCA 06:04	DAL 08:21	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 11 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 06:40	DAL 08:59	4%	1%	0.7%	89%
AA 2007 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	DFW 07:22	6%	3%	1.2%	90%
AA 1839 American Flight history →	DCA 06:59	DFW 09:25	6%	3%	1.2%	90%
WN 1550 Southwest	BWI 10:00	DAL 12:25	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1465 Southwest	DCA 10:52	DAL 13:10	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 1978 American Flight history →	DCA 07:59	DFW 10:31	9%	4%	1.2%	84%
AA 2617 American Flight history →	IAD 06:14	DFW 08:35	9%	3%	1.1%	85%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	IAD 12:40	DFW 15:04	15%	6%	0.6%	79%
WN 820 Southwest	BWI 14:37	DAL 16:59	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 795 American Flight history →	DCA 10:01	DFW 12:20	15%	4%	1.3%	90%
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DCA 11:59	DFW 14:23	16%	5%	1.3%	76%
AA 1403 American Flight history →	BWI 07:30	DFW 09:55	16%	4%	1.2%	85%
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DCA 13:47	DFW 16:14	17%	6%	1.5%	78%
F9 4559 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 12:23	DFW 14:49	17%	7%	1.3%	70%
AA 1624 American Flight history →	DCA 15:13	DFW 17:44	17%	7%	1.8%	82%
WN 53 Southwest	DCA 16:57	DAL 19:15	17%	5%	1.2%	no record
F9 1475 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 12:36	DFW 15:06	19%	9%	1.0%	68%
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DCA 17:11	DFW 19:41	21%	8%	3.3%	65%
AA 2314 American Flight history →	BWI 11:58	DFW 14:17	21%	8%	1.2%	72%
AA 524 American Flight history →	IAD 16:55	DFW 19:15	22%	8%	1.7%	83%
UA 2116 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	DFW 20:25	22%	9%	0.7%	72%
AA 1158 American Flight history →	DCA 19:08	DFW 21:34	25%	17%	4.9%	61%
AA 2775 American	BWI 14:11	DFW 16:35	26%	8%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON