Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 934 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 934 DCA 06:57 → HOU 09:17 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3067 BWI 16:44 → IAH 19:07 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 934 Southwest	DCA 06:57	HOU 09:17	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 1450 United Flight history →	DCA 06:00	IAH 08:13	5%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 1898 United Flight history →	BWI 06:00	IAH 08:16	7%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 1747 United	IAD 06:04	IAH 08:26	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 697 United Flight history →	DCA 08:20	IAH 10:41	9%	3%	0.7%	91%
WN 1923 Southwest	BWI 08:02	HOU 10:23	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2190 United Flight history →	DCA 10:58	IAH 13:19	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
UA 1524 United Flight history →	IAD 08:40	IAH 10:59	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 1535 United Flight history →	IAD 12:50	IAH 15:11	11%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 382 United Flight history →	DCA 12:59	IAH 15:18	12%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 2607 United	IAD 15:00	IAH 17:23	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
OH 5591 PSA	DCA 14:05	IAH 16:35	13%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 1911 United	BWI 14:55	IAH 17:30	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 319 Southwest	BWI 11:45	HOU 14:12	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1463 United Flight history →	IAD 22:16	IAH 00:25	16%	4%	0.6%	95%worse than usual
UA 2217 United Flight history →	IAD 17:59	IAH 20:25	18%	6%	0.6%	72%
WN 1014 Southwest	BWI 19:30	HOU 21:52	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 3067 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 16:44	IAH 19:07	24%	9%	1.4%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410	47m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → HOU 09:34DL 1509	4h 34m	87%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON