Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1045 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1045 BWI 06:06 → LAX 08:34 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 533 BWI 19:20 → LAX 22:02 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1045 Southwest	BWI 06:06	LAX 08:34	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 392 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:45	LAX 19:19	12%	4%	0.9%	75%
UA 2011 United	IAD 06:57	LAX 09:23	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1689 United Flight history →	IAD 13:10	LAX 15:42	12%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 1734 United Flight history →	IAD 08:24	LAX 10:52	12%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 657 United	IAD 09:30	LAX 12:05	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2319 United	IAD 17:50	SNA 20:40	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1966 American Flight history →	DCA 08:40	LAX 11:19	15%	4%	0.7%	83%
UA 684 United Flight history →	IAD 15:15	LAX 17:47	16%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 1591 United	BWI 07:54	LAX 10:30	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 3283 American Flight history →	DCA 18:01	LAX 20:41	17%	5%	0.7%	70%
AS 5 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 09:59	LAX 12:27	18%	3%	0.8%	71%
UA 2276 United Flight history →	IAD 17:48	LAX 20:21	21%	6%	0.6%	71%
WN 533 Southwest	BWI 19:20	LAX 22:02	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:24 → ONT 12:22DL 1173	8h 07m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	7h 50m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:10 → SLC 09:45DL 432	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	7h 49m	96%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON