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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 33 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5802 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–53%.

Safest bet that day DL 5802 DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1831 IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:06 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.

DL 5802 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 06:02 JFK 07:25 3% 2% 1.1% 93%
YX 5873 Republic DCA 05:55 LGA 07:09 4% 2% 1.4% no record
AA 4551 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 06:30 JFK 07:57 4% 2% 1.2% 94%
YX 5843 Republic DCA 06:47 LGA 07:57 5% 2% 1.4% no record
B6 254 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 06:20 JFK 07:28 8% 2% 1.2% 91%
YX 4366 Republic DCA 09:03 LGA 10:32 10% 3% 1.6% no record
UA 1998 United IAD 06:37 EWR 07:49 10% 3% 1.0% no record
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 10:56 JFK 12:16 12% 3% 1.7% 94%
UA 2396 United Flight history → IAD 08:15 EWR 09:42 12% 4% 1.0% 89%
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 12:00 LGA 13:18 15% 5% 2.2% 75%
DL 5772 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 09:45 LGA 10:55 15% 3% 1.6% 81%
YX 4583 Republic DCA 18:15 LGA 19:49 16% 6% 2.2% no record
YX 5853 Republic DCA 17:00 JFK 18:32 17% 6% 1.5% no record
B6 8360 JetBlue DCA 23:39 JFK 01:00 18% 7% 1.7% no record
AA 4629 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 18:28 JFK 20:03 18% 5% 1.7% 71%
AA 4522 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 12:59 JFK 14:15 19% 5% 1.2% 72%
DL 5747 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 14:00 LGA 15:22 20% 8% 1.9% 67%
AA 4730 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 14:09 LGA 15:25 21% 8% 1.7% 62%
DL 5752 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 19:40 LGA 21:04 21% 8% 2.5% 48%
YX 5809 Republic IAD 12:23 JFK 13:57 22% 5% 1.2% no record
DL 5763 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 17:40 LGA 19:00 24% 10% 2.9% 51%
UA 1997 United Flight history → IAD 22:43 EWR 23:53 24% 7% 1.0% 78%
YX 5779 Republic IAD 18:21 JFK 19:59 24% 8% 1.2% no record
UA 1498 United Flight history → IAD 12:35 EWR 14:01 30% 10% 1.3% 69%
UA 1831 United Flight history → IAD 17:42 EWR 19:06 53% 16% 1.0% 59%worse than usual
UA 4167 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 06:00 EWR 07:19 7% 4% 2.2% 93%
UA 4184 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 10:07 EWR 11:29 13% 12% 5.6% 87%
UA 6116 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 08:19 LGA 09:48 18% 6% 2.9% 82%
UA 4077 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 17:15 LGA 18:42 23% 13% 13.9% 77%
UA 4442 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 13:00 EWR 14:22 33% 18% 4.6% 67%
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record IAD 19:14 JFK 21:00 36% 22% 12.7% 64%
UA 4560 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 15:10 EWR 16:30 36% 21% 8.3% 64%
UA 4180 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 17:55 EWR 19:28 43% 24% 11.4% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON