Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 32 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1178 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 1178 DCA 05:00 → MIA 07:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2959 IAD 17:29 → FLL 20:12 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1178 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	MIA 07:56	8%	2%	1.3%	93%
AA 2344 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	MIA 07:43	10%	3%	1.3%	96%
WN 408 Southwest	BWI 06:40	FLL 09:25	10%	2%	2.8%	no record
B6 379 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 06:00	FLL 08:32	11%	4%	4.8%	77%
UA 1073 United Flight history →	IAD 08:45	MIA 11:35	14%	4%	0.7%	87%
WN 1492 Southwest	DCA 07:27	FLL 10:10	14%	2%	4.7%	no record
AA 1183 American Flight history →	BWI 06:00	MIA 08:46	16%	3%	1.3%	87%
UA 1825 United Flight history →	IAD 08:22	FLL 11:09	16%	4%	2.2%	89%
AA 401 American Flight history →	DCA 10:02	MIA 12:58	18%	3%	1.3%	93%worse than usual
WN 4480 Southwest	BWI 08:10	MIA 10:59	18%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1001 Southwest	BWI 08:20	FLL 11:05	18%	3%	3.6%	no record
AA 422 American Flight history →	DCA 08:20	MIA 11:17	20%	3%	1.1%	84%
AA 2214 American	DCA 21:04	MIA 23:48	21%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 1893 American Flight history →	DCA 08:03	FLL 10:55	21%	4%	3.4%	89%worse than usual
WN 4172 Southwest	BWI 12:25	FLL 15:10	22%	5%	1.6%	no record
B6 579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:59	FLL 10:40	23%	5%	3.4%	81%
WN 1004 Southwest	BWI 18:10	FLL 20:55	23%	5%	1.6%	no record
WN 550 Southwest	BWI 12:05	MIA 14:49	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 582 American	DCA 19:08	MIA 21:58	26%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 4520 Southwest	BWI 17:55	MIA 20:39	26%	7%	0.8%	no record
B6 2995 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 10:00	FLL 12:48	27%	9%	8.1%	80%
DL 2576 Delta Flight history →	DCA 14:43	MIA 17:33	28%	8%	0.8%	67%
F9 1665 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 10:49	MIA 13:41	28%	8%	1.6%	67%
AA 1627 American Flight history →	DCA 11:55	MIA 14:38	28%	5%	1.1%	76%
AA 973 American	DCA 17:27	MIA 20:21	29%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 1612 American Flight history →	DCA 13:50	MIA 16:43	30%	7%	1.1%	62%
B6 1579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 16:41	FLL 19:35	30%	12%	2.4%	61%
AA 1299 American	DCA 14:59	MIA 17:49	30%	8%	1.0%	no record
F9 4411 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 13:05	FLL 15:47	30%	9%	3.2%	59%
B6 2595 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 16:00	FLL 18:41	35%	12%	2.5%	57%
AA 1779 American	BWI 19:08	MIA 21:55	35%	9%	1.0%	no record
F9 2959 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 17:29	FLL 20:12	40%	12%	2.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON