Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5497 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 5497 XNA 07:29 → ATL 10:27 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest 9E 5037 XNA 17:42 → ATL 20:42 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5497 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	XNA 07:29	ATL 10:27	9%	5%	1.1%	87%
DL 3068 Delta	XNA 08:42	ATL 11:32	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3795 SkyWest	XNA 06:03	ATL 09:14	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
OO 3785 SkyWest	XNA 13:51	ATL 16:58	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 3923 SkyWest	XNA 11:08	ATL 14:03	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 1416 Delta	XNA 19:05	ATL 21:57	18%	8%	0.9%	no record
9E 5037 Endeavor	XNA 17:42	ATL 20:42	19%	6%	3.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON