Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5197 XNA 06:01 → CLT 09:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5233 XNA 17:28 → CLT 20:52 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5197 PSA	XNA 06:01	CLT 09:35	8%	4%	1.4%	no record
AA 3871 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 09:44	CLT 13:05	11%	3%	1.0%	91%
AA 5327 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 10:44	CLT 14:10	11%	4%	1.6%	86%
AA 5233 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 17:28	CLT 20:52	16%	6%	1.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON