Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 3824 at 07:13, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3824 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:13	DCA 11:03	10%	3%	0.7%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	XNA 07:02 → ORD 09:01AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → DCA 13:49AA 1200	5h 47m	100%	84%
United Details →	XNA 07:32 → ORD 09:36UA 4612 · flown by GoJet	1h 39m Chicago	ORD 11:15 → DCA 14:22UA 2668	5h 50m	100%	81%
American Details →	XNA 05:24 → ORD 07:30AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	2h 25m Chicago	ORD 09:55 → DCA 13:09AA 315	6h 45m	94%	81%
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → DCA 13:55AA 2399	7h 55m	98%	80%
American Details →	XNA 07:59 → DFW 09:29AA 1700	2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	7h 00m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:29 → ATL 10:28DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	6h 27m	96%	77%
American Details →	XNA 09:12 → ORD 11:01AA 3595 · flown by Envoy	2h 21m Chicago	ORD 13:22 → DCA 16:41AA 789	6h 29m	100%	77%
American Details →	XNA 06:18 → DFW 07:39AA 3985 · flown by Envoy	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:50 → DCA 12:52AA 1177	5h 34m	89%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	XNA 07:02 → ORD 09:01AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	54m Chicago	ORD 09:55 → DCA 13:09AA 315	5h 07m	74%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON