Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 5326 at 05:49 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–22%.

Safest bet that day OO 5326 XNA 05:49 → DEN 07:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5694 XNA 17:06 → DEN 18:22 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5326 SkyWest	XNA 05:49	DEN 07:04	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 5812 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 13:28	DEN 14:48	9%	5%	0.5%	92%
UA 2383 United	XNA 08:58	DEN 10:14	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 5694 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 17:06	DEN 18:22	22%	7%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON