Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3614 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 3614 XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2150 XNA 18:24 → DFW 19:51 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3614 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 05:00	DFW 06:20	12%	4%	1.1%	87%
MQ 4111 Envoy	XNA 09:18	DFW 10:41	15%	6%	1.0%	no record
MQ 3603 Envoy	XNA 10:34	DFW 11:51	17%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 3803 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 14:36	DFW 15:58	17%	7%	1.1%	85%
AA 3985 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:13	DFW 08:45	18%	6%	1.1%	75%
AA 1700 American Flight history →	XNA 07:59	DFW 09:28	21%	7%	1.3%	82%
AA 3840 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 16:07	DFW 17:27	23%	9%	1.4%	72%
AA 2025 American	XNA 12:07	DFW 13:26	25%	11%	1.4%	no record
AA 2967 American	XNA 12:52	DFW 14:11	27%	12%	1.4%	no record
AA 2150 American	XNA 18:24	DFW 19:51	36%	18%	3.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON