Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 4895 at 17:25, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4895 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	XNA 17:25	DTW 20:49	13%	5%	1.2%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	XNA 09:13 → ORD 11:01AA 3595 · flown by Envoy	2h 11m Chicago	ORD 13:12 → DTW 15:38AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	5h 25m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:29 → ATL 10:27DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → DTW 16:06DL 1031	7h 37m	98%	80%
American Details →	XNA 05:24 → ORD 07:30AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	2h 29m Chicago	ORD 09:59 → DTW 12:29AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	6h 05m	94%	79%
United Details →	XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Denver	DEN 17:47 → DTW 22:43UA 1220	8h 15m	100%	74%
American Details →	XNA 09:44 → CLT 13:05AA 3871 · flown by Envoy	2h 43m Charlotte	CLT 15:48 → DTW 17:36AA 1134	6h 52m	99%	73%
United Details →	XNA 07:32 → ORD 09:35UA 4612 · flown by GoJet	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 10:50 → DTW 13:27UA 5756 · flown by SkyWest	4h 55m	88%	70%
American Details →	XNA 07:13 → DFW 08:45AA 3985 · flown by Envoy	2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:25 → DTW 15:14AA 690	7h 01m	94%	65%
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:08 → DTW 10:58AA 3101	4h 58m	76%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	XNA 07:03 → ORD 09:01AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	58m Chicago	ORD 09:59 → DTW 12:29AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	4h 26m	74%	62%
United Details →	XNA 18:25 → ORD 20:17UA 4411 · flown by GoJet	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 21:24 → DTW 23:41UA 349	4h 16m	73%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON