tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4051 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record XNA 06:30 IAH 08:21 14% 3% 0.0% 86%
UA 4338 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record XNA 11:47 IAH 13:37 25% 13% 0.0% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Denver DEN 17:29 → IAH 20:59UA 1587 7h 31m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 6h 13m 93% 77%
DeltaDetails → XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 15:26 → IAH 16:39DL 1223 7h 00m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → XNA 17:06 → DEN 18:22UA 5694 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Denver DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419 6h 53m 92% 75%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:13 → DFW 08:45AA 3985 · flown by Envoy 1h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:22 → IAH 11:39AA 3829 · flown by Envoy 4h 26m 89% 74%
UnitedDetails → XNA 07:22 → ORD 09:30UA 4475 · flown by GoJet 1h 14m Chicago ORD 10:44 → IAH 13:33UA 2767 6h 11m 90% 72%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:59 → DFW 09:28AA 1700 2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:05 → IAH 13:23AA 1397 5h 24m 100% 67%
AmericanDetails → XNA 09:13 → ORD 11:01AA 3595 · flown by Envoy 2h 18m Chicago ORD 13:19 → IAH 16:13AA 2302 7h 00m 100% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:59 → DFW 09:28AA 1700 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:22 → IAH 11:39AA 3829 · flown by Envoy 3h 40m 74% 61%
DeltaDetails → XNA 17:59 → ATL 20:55DL 5126 · flown by Endeavor 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 5h 58m 74% 58%
UnitedDetails → XNA 14:56 → ORD 16:59UA 4564 · flown by GoJet 1h 08m Chicago ORD 18:07 → IAH 20:51UA 1921 5h 55m 71% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON