tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 6299 SkyWest XNA 16:08 LAX 17:54 16% 5% 0.6% no record
OO 220 SkyWest XNA 07:18 LAX 08:52 17% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 8h 52m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa 1h 32m Houston IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469 7h 00m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 8h 38m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → XNA 11:47 → IAH 13:37UA 4338 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 54m Houston IAH 16:31 → LAX 18:08UA 1743 8h 21m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → XNA 17:49 → SLC 20:03DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → LAX 22:10DL 1142 6h 21m 92% 77%
UnitedDetails → XNA 07:22 → ORD 09:30UA 4475 · flown by GoJet 3h 30m Chicago ORD 13:00 → LAX 15:34UA 1363 10h 12m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest 2h 56m Denver DEN 17:44 → LAX 19:16UA 1753 7h 48m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → XNA 08:47 → PHX 09:38AA 4033 · flown by Envoy 1h 10m Phoenix PHX 10:48 → LAX 12:21AA 2027 5h 34m 91% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → XNA 17:59 → ATL 20:55DL 5126 · flown by Endeavor 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → LAX 00:30 +1DL 575 8h 31m 74% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON