Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 4472 at 15:54, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4472 American flown by Republic Flight history →	XNA 15:54	LGA 20:12	20%	8%	1.5%	68%
DL 5482 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 11:12	LGA 15:14	21%	9%	3.8%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	6h 30m	94%	81%
United Details →	XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest	2h 32m Denver	DEN 17:20 → LGA 23:13UA 2033	8h 45m	99%	80%
United Details →	XNA 07:22 → ORD 09:30UA 4475 · flown by GoJet	1h 40m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → LGA 14:30UA 529	6h 08m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 15:30 → LGA 17:54DL 433	7h 15m	97%	77%
American Details →	XNA 06:39 → DCA 10:18AA 3824 · flown by Envoy	3h 51m Washington	DCA 14:09 → LGA 15:25AA 4730 · flown by Republic	7h 46m	100%	77%
United Details →	XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa	3h 39m Houston	IAH 12:00 → LGA 16:44UA 2181	9h 14m	100%	76%
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:27 → LGA 13:10AA 1056	7h 10m	93%	75%
American Details →	XNA 05:24 → ORD 07:30AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	2h 43m Chicago	ORD 10:13 → LGA 13:34AA 3128	7h 10m	95%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	XNA 17:28 → CLT 20:52AA 5233 · flown by PSA	48m Charlotte	CLT 21:40 → LGA 23:29AA 2031	5h 01m	65%	47%
United Details →	XNA 14:56 → ORD 16:59UA 4564 · flown by GoJet	1h 14m Chicago	ORD 18:13 → LGA 21:30UA 2458	5h 34m	73%	47%
American Details →	XNA 14:36 → DFW 15:58AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:45 → LGA 21:26AA 610	5h 50m	62%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON