Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, YX 4411 at 05:02, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 4411 Republic	XNA 05:02	MIA 09:14	16%	4%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	XNA 06:39 → DCA 10:18AA 3824 · flown by Envoy	1h 37m Washington	DCA 11:55 → MIA 14:38AA 1627	6h 59m	99%	69%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:29 → ATL 10:27DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 13:35 → MIA 15:43DL 1323	7h 14m	98%	69%
United Details →	XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Denver	DEN 16:03 → MIA 22:05UA 445	7h 37m	94%	68%
American Details →	XNA 06:33 → PHL 10:41AA 5551 · flown by PSA	3h 58m Philadelphia	PHL 14:39 → MIA 17:36AA 3061	10h 03m	100%	66%
American Details →	XNA 08:47 → PHX 09:38AA 4033 · flown by Envoy	2h 35m Phoenix	PHX 12:13 → MIA 19:47AA 404	10h 00m	97%	64%
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:02 → MIA 13:04AA 1219	7h 04m	97%	62%
American Details →	XNA 05:24 → ORD 07:30AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	2h 35m Chicago	ORD 10:05 → MIA 14:22AA 2689	7h 58m	94%	59%
American Details →	XNA 07:59 → DFW 09:28AA 1700	3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:46 → MIA 16:48AA 2461	7h 49m	100%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	XNA 17:28 → CLT 20:52AA 5233 · flown by PSA	52m Charlotte	CLT 21:44 → MIA 23:43AA 3068	5h 15m	75%	48%
American Details →	XNA 07:03 → ORD 09:01AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 10:05 → MIA 14:22AA 2689	6h 19m	74%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON