tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3761 at 11:37, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 3761 SkyWest XNA 11:37 MSP 13:35 17% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → XNA 07:29 → ATL 10:27DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 6h 21m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Denver DEN 17:55 → MSP 21:00UA 2076 7h 32m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → XNA 17:06 → DEN 18:22UA 5694 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Denver DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667 6h 53m 94% 80%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:03 → ORD 09:01AA 3933 · flown by Envoy 2h 48m Chicago ORD 11:49 → MSP 13:55AA 2448 6h 52m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → XNA 07:32 → ORD 09:35UA 4612 · flown by GoJet 3h 18m Chicago ORD 12:53 → MSP 14:30UA 467 6h 58m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:59 → DFW 09:28AA 1700 2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:58 → MSP 14:32AA 1668 6h 33m 100% 72%
AmericanDetails → XNA 14:36 → DFW 15:58AA 3803 · flown by Envoy 2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:51 → MSP 21:21AA 2806 6h 45m 99% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → XNA 09:13 → ORD 11:01AA 3595 · flown by Envoy 48m Chicago ORD 11:49 → MSP 13:55AA 2448 4h 42m 56% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON