Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4088 at 05:24 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 4088 XNA 05:24 → ORD 07:30 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 4411 XNA 18:25 → ORD 20:17 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4088 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 05:24	ORD 07:30	17%	4%	0.9%	86%
AA 3595 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 09:13	ORD 11:01	22%	5%	0.8%	90%worse than usual
UA 4612 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	XNA 07:32	ORD 09:35	25%	6%	1.7%	81%
G7 4435 GoJet	XNA 11:11	ORD 13:07	26%	7%	1.5%	no record
AA 3933 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:03	ORD 09:01	26%	5%	0.8%	84%
MQ 3660 Envoy	XNA 19:36	ORD 21:19	29%	7%	1.0%	no record
MQ 3470 Envoy	XNA 14:09	ORD 15:59	29%	8%	0.9%	no record
G7 4470 GoJet	XNA 14:52	ORD 16:53	29%	9%	2.2%	no record
UA 4411 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	XNA 18:25	ORD 20:17	32%	10%	1.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON