Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 5551 at 06:33, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5551 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 06:33	PHL 10:41	9%	4%	1.0%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Denver	DEN 17:52 → PHL 23:28UA 1510	9h 00m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:29 → ATL 10:27DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → PHL 15:58DL 1692	7h 29m	98%	78%
United Details →	XNA 07:32 → ORD 09:35UA 4612 · flown by GoJet	1h 58m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	6h 15m	100%	77%
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:35 → PHL 13:07AA 2255	7h 07m	93%	75%
American Details →	XNA 07:03 → ORD 09:01AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	2h 39m Chicago	ORD 11:40 → PHL 14:54AA 1743	6h 51m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	XNA 17:25 → DTW 20:49DL 4895 · flown by Endeavor	46m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	4h 51m	83%	71%
American Details →	XNA 05:24 → ORD 07:30AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	1h 46m Chicago	ORD 09:16 → PHL 12:17AA 1725	5h 53m	93%	70%
American Details →	XNA 10:44 → CLT 14:10AA 5327 · flown by PSA	3h 55m Charlotte	CLT 18:05 → PHL 20:01AA 423	8h 17m	100%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON