Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4033 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 08:47	PHX 09:38	13%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 2800 American	XNA 14:31	PHX 15:29	23%	8%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	XNA 17:49 → SLC 20:03DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → PHX 22:11DL 1496	6h 22m	97%	82%
United Details →	XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa	1h 19m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	6h 04m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	8h 58m	96%	79%
United Details →	XNA 07:22 → ORD 09:30UA 4475 · flown by GoJet	1h 40m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → PHX 13:02UA 2164	7h 40m	95%	77%
United Details →	XNA 11:47 → IAH 13:37UA 4338 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 15m Houston	IAH 16:52 → PHX 17:51UA 1478	8h 04m	94%	75%
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → PHX 09:29AA 520	6h 29m	97%	75%
American Details →	XNA 07:59 → DFW 09:28AA 1700	3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:30 → PHX 13:07AA 336	7h 08m	100%	74%
American Details →	XNA 07:03 → ORD 09:01AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	1h 34m Chicago	ORD 10:35 → PHX 12:28AA 2192	7h 25m	99%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON