Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 17:06, is the safest bet: 58% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 3620 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 17:49	SLC 20:03	9%	5%	0.6%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	XNA 17:06 → DEN 18:22UA 5694 · flown by SkyWest	2h 43m Denver	DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest	6h 38m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	9h 31m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 39m	96%	78%
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:52 → SLC 10:50AA 1878	6h 50m	96%	72%
United Details →	XNA 07:22 → ORD 09:30UA 4475 · flown by GoJet	3h 15m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → SLC 15:22UA 1955	9h 00m	98%	70%
American Details →	XNA 05:24 → ORD 07:30AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 10:06 → SLC 12:48AA 3258	8h 24m	95%	67%
American Details →	XNA 07:03 → ORD 09:01AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	3h 58m Chicago	ORD 12:59 → SLC 15:39AA 1873	9h 36m	100%	63%
American Details →	XNA 07:13 → DFW 08:45AA 3985 · flown by Envoy	2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:24 → SLC 13:14AA 1871	7h 01m	94%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	XNA 07:03 → ORD 09:01AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 10:06 → SLC 12:48AA 3258	6h 45m	74%	53%
Delta Details →	XNA 17:59 → ATL 20:55DL 5126 · flown by Endeavor	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453	7h 27m	69%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON