Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1688 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17%.

Safest bet that day DL 1688 ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1109 ABQ 16:36 → ATL 21:59 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1688 Delta Flight history →	ABQ 07:00	ATL 12:04	6%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 8795 Delta	ABQ 00:57	ATL 06:12	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1004 Delta Flight history →	ABQ 11:10	ATL 16:20	12%	4%	0.7%	90%
DL 8813 Delta	ABQ 17:42	ATL 22:56	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 1109 Delta Flight history →	ABQ 16:36	ATL 21:59	17%	6%	0.8%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON