tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2709 at 16:15, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2709 Southwest ABQ 16:15 BNA 20:02 31% 9% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ABQ 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → BNA 11:42UA 605 5h 12m 95% 86%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:15 → DEN 06:45WN 117 50m Denver DEN 07:35 → BNA 11:11WN 2322 4h 56m 93% 84%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 6h 03m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621 1h 09m Denver DEN 09:32 → BNA 13:08UA 355 5h 08m 92% 77%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 08:30 → MSP 12:04DL 535 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35DL 2612 8h 05m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 11:10 → ATL 16:20DL 1004 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490 6h 42m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 14:08 → IAH 17:25UA 3986 · flown by Mesa 2h 39m Houston IAH 20:04 → BNA 22:25UA 750 7h 17m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 12:13 → IAH 15:30UA 6151 · flown by Mesa 2h 22m Houston IAH 17:52 → BNA 19:54UA 4785 · flown by SkyWest 6h 41m 98% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ABQ 14:26 → DFW 17:22AA 3777 · flown by Envoy 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:18 → BNA 20:17AA 1076 4h 51m 71% 41%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 16:08 → DFW 19:08AA 9 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:15 → BNA 22:10AA 1500 5h 02m 69% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON