tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1357 at 11:35, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1357 Southwest ABQ 11:35 BUR 12:46 15% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:15 → DEN 06:45WN 117 1h 50m Denver DEN 08:35 → BUR 10:10WN 1733 5h 55m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 4h 59m 95% 80%
AlaskaDetails → ABQ 11:34 → PDX 13:35AS 2269 · flown by Horizon 1h 20m Portland PDX 14:55 → BUR 17:13AS 1386 6h 39m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621 2h 52m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 6h 48m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 05:32 → DFW 08:26AA 1231 1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:16 → BUR 11:34AA 1208 7h 02m 92% 64%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 12:10 → LAS 12:49WN 147 2h 52m Las Vegas LAS 15:41 → BUR 16:58WN 3101 5h 48m 98% 62%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 16:08 → DFW 19:08AA 9 1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597 6h 50m 81% 38%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ABQ 18:10 → SLC 20:03DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 47m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339 4h 38m 68% 39%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 16:20 → DEN 17:50UA 725 1h 23m Denver DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43UA 2411 5h 23m 73% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON