Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1231 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1231 ABQ 05:32 → DFW 08:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 9 ABQ 16:08 → DFW 19:08 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1231 American Flight history →	ABQ 05:32	DFW 08:26	9%	6%	1.6%	88%
AA 99 American Flight history →	ABQ 07:04	DFW 10:00	13%	7%	1.5%	90%
AA 999 American Flight history →	ABQ 08:21	DFW 11:14	15%	7%	1.2%	84%
AA 3535 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 10:05	DFW 13:01	17%	6%	0.9%	73%
AA 3586 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 12:19	DFW 15:12	18%	6%	0.9%	84%
AA 3777 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 14:26	DFW 17:22	24%	8%	1.0%	77%
AA 3053 American	ABQ 16:15	DFW 19:20	36%	14%	1.2%	no record
AA 9 American Flight history →	ABQ 16:08	DFW 19:08	37%	14%	1.3%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON