tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 413 United ABQ 05:56 IAD 11:42 5% 2% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 2 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ABQ 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101 5h 56m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621 1h 57m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:54UA 2087 6h 54m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 08:30 → MSP 12:04DL 535 2h 26m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 7h 34m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688 51m Atlanta ATL 12:55 → IAD 14:39DL 2135 5h 39m 92% 78%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 12:13 → IAH 15:30UA 6151 · flown by Mesa 3h 02m Houston IAH 18:32 → IAD 22:43UA 1373 8h 30m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 05:32 → DFW 08:26AA 1231 1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:09 → IAD 14:03AA 524 6h 31m 92% 72%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 14:08 → IAH 17:25UA 3986 · flown by Mesa 2h 51m Houston IAH 20:16 → IAD 00:13 +1UA 1968 8h 05m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 11:10 → ATL 16:20DL 1004 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309 7h 53m 99% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON