Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 136 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 136 ABQ 06:30 → LAS 07:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2714 ABQ 18:05 → LAS 18:45 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 136 Southwest	ABQ 06:30	LAS 07:10	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 5098 Southwest	ABQ 08:20	LAS 09:00	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1966 Southwest	ABQ 10:43	LAS 11:26	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 147 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 12:10	LAS 12:49	25%	5%	0.6%	75%
WN 1288 Southwest	ABQ 14:20	LAS 15:00	39%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 3199 Southwest	ABQ 21:05	LAS 21:45	41%	15%	0.6%	no record
WN 2714 Southwest	ABQ 18:05	LAS 18:45	43%	16%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON