Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3665 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 3665 ABQ 05:55 → LAX 06:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1241 ABQ 20:45 → LAX 21:51 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3665 Southwest	ABQ 05:55	LAX 06:59	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 4115 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 06:00	LAX 07:09	5%	3%	0.6%	95%
AA 6444 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 07:13	LAX 08:24	13%	4%	0.6%	97%
OO 3814 SkyWest	ABQ 12:05	LAX 13:12	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 4897 SkyWest	ABQ 12:46	LAX 13:53	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 4091 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 18:48	LAX 19:59	18%	6%	0.6%	87%
WN 532 Southwest	ABQ 12:15	LAX 13:19	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1241 Southwest	ABQ 20:45	LAX 21:51	45%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON