Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 508 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 508 Southwest	ABQ 07:35	MDW 11:25	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 116 Southwest	ABQ 14:25	MDW 18:18	31%	8%	2.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ABQ 05:15 → DEN 06:45WN 117	1h 40m Denver	DEN 08:25 → MDW 11:49WN 1675	5h 34m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	8h 15m	99%	72%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 12:10 → LAS 12:49WN 147	3h 26m Las Vegas	LAS 16:15 → MDW 21:47WN 3992	8h 37m	100%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON