Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 920 at 16:35, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 920 Southwest	ABQ 16:35	OAK 18:10	33%	7%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ABQ 11:34 → PDX 13:35AS 2269 · flown by Horizon	3h 58m Portland	PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon	8h 49m	100%	97%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 05:15 → DEN 06:45WN 117	1h 40m Denver	DEN 08:25 → OAK 10:05WN 1186	5h 50m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	4h 51m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	ABQ 18:10 → SLC 20:03DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 40m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	ABQ 12:16 → SEA 14:25AS 330	2h 20m Seattle	SEA 16:45 → OAK 18:53AS 1328	7h 37m	100%	65%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 12:10 → LAS 12:49WN 147	2h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 15:14 → OAK 16:52WN 2260	5h 42m	95%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON