tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 426 at 14:55, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 426 Alaska ABQ 14:55 PDX 16:59 17% 4% 1.1% no record
AS 2269 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record ABQ 11:34 PDX 13:35 7% 2% 0.3% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:15 → DEN 06:45WN 117 1h 45m Denver DEN 08:30 → PDX 10:19WN 3850 6h 04m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Denver DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:48UA 1247 5h 18m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 5h 15m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 08:30 → MSP 12:04DL 535 3h 54m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 10h 05m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621 3h 04m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 7h 09m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 06:00 → LAX 07:09DL 4115 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Los Angeles LAX 10:00 → PDX 12:20DL 2766 7h 20m 99% 80%
AlaskaDetails → ABQ 12:16 → SEA 14:25AS 330 3h 34m Seattle SEA 17:59 → PDX 18:56AS 2302 · flown by Horizon 7h 40m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 18:10 → SLC 20:03DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373 6h 34m 100% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ABQ 13:33 → DEN 15:03UA 1741 57m Denver DEN 16:00 → PDX 17:46UA 1337 5h 13m 73% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON