Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4442 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 4442 ABQ 06:40 → PHX 07:03 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3322 ABQ 19:40 → PHX 20:05 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4442 Southwest	ABQ 06:40	PHX 07:03	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 459 Southwest	ABQ 10:30	PHX 10:54	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2760 American	ABQ 08:58	PHX 09:25	18%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1352 American Flight history →	ABQ 11:43	PHX 12:10	19%	9%	0.9%	90%
MQ 4133 Envoy	ABQ 19:28	PHX 20:03	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 5103 Southwest	ABQ 11:40	PHX 12:03	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3879 Envoy	ABQ 15:10	PHX 15:33	21%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 2797 Southwest	ABQ 12:45	PHX 13:09	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3415 Southwest	ABQ 16:15	PHX 16:38	35%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 3886 Southwest	ABQ 23:02	PHX 23:35	36%	15%	0.7%	no record
WN 5107 Southwest	ABQ 18:30	PHX 18:53	40%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 3322 Southwest	ABQ 19:40	PHX 20:05	40%	13%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON