tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4965 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 42%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4965 Southwest ABQ 06:50 SAN 07:52 10% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 546 Southwest ABQ 19:40 SAN 20:44 42% 14% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:15 → DEN 06:45WN 117 2h 14m Denver DEN 08:59 → SAN 10:18WN 1754 6h 03m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest 1h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 5h 13m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621 2h 52m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 6h 41m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 18:48 → LAX 19:59DL 4091 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest 5h 54m 95% 68%
AlaskaDetails → ABQ 11:34 → PDX 13:35AS 2269 · flown by Horizon 1h 18m Portland PDX 14:53 → SAN 17:29AS 1320 6h 55m 95% 68%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 06:00 → LAX 07:09DL 4115 · flown by SkyWest 1h 41m Los Angeles LAX 08:50 → SAN 09:52DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest 4h 52m 99% 67%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 18:10 → SLC 20:03DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:50DL 1202 6h 40m 100% 66%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 12:13 → IAH 15:30UA 6151 · flown by Mesa 1h 02m Houston IAH 16:32 → SAN 18:05UA 2798 6h 52m 90% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ABQ 13:33 → DEN 15:03UA 1741 52m Denver DEN 15:55 → SAN 17:20UA 1281 4h 47m 68% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON