tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 30–32% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 5840 SkyWest ABQ 09:41 SFO 11:20 30% 11% 0.5% no record
UA 1427 United ABQ 16:00 SFO 17:49 32% 13% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → ABQ 11:34 → PDX 13:35AS 2269 · flown by Horizon 1h 14m Portland PDX 14:49 → SFO 16:40AS 236 6h 06m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621 2h 58m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 7h 04m 98% 72%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:15 → DEN 06:45WN 117 1h 45m Denver DEN 08:30 → SFO 10:14WN 4303 5h 59m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Denver DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 6h 55m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688 55m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 8h 50m 93% 70%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 07:13 → LAX 08:24AA 6444 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Los Angeles LAX 11:10 → SFO 12:52AA 1110 6h 39m 100% 69%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest 1h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 5h 08m 96% 69%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 18:10 → SLC 20:03DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091 6h 42m 100% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ABQ 14:08 → IAH 17:25UA 3986 · flown by Mesa 48m Houston IAH 18:13 → SFO 20:30UA 2607 7h 22m 68% 43%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 16:08 → DFW 19:08AA 9 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:15 → SFO 22:16AA 2522 7h 08m 69% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON