Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 4152 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 4152 ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 3726 ABQ 18:10 → SLC 20:03 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4152 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 07:55	SLC 09:44	6%	3%	0.6%	97%
OO 3878 SkyWest	ABQ 12:28	SLC 14:20	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 3726 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 18:10	SLC 20:03	21%	7%	1.4%	93%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON