Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 5966 at 12:30, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5966 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 12:30	DEN 16:22	28%	12%	2.6%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Arcata/Eureka). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:07UA 5313 · flown by SkyWest	1h 54m San Francisco	SFO 09:01 → DEN 12:35UA 1469	5h 35m	94%	71%
United Details →	ACV 16:02 → SFO 17:22UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest	3h 38m San Francisco	SFO 21:00 → DEN 00:47 +1UA 301	7h 45m	97%	70%
United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	3h 34m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	7h 39m	96%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m San Francisco	SFO 16:23 → DEN 19:55UA 1835	4h 50m	62%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON