tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 324 at 13:31, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 324 United ACV 13:31 LAX 15:32 21% 8% 4.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:07UA 5313 · flown by SkyWest 1h 43m San Francisco SFO 08:50 → LAX 10:17UA 1457 4h 17m 93% 66%
UnitedDetails → ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest 3h 34m San Francisco SFO 18:56 → LAX 20:35UA 1799 6h 30m 96% 64%
UnitedDetails → ACV 16:02 → SFO 17:22UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest 2h 24m San Francisco SFO 19:46 → LAX 21:16UA 2409 5h 14m 95% 50%
UnitedDetails → ACV 12:30 → DEN 16:22UA 5966 · flown by SkyWest 1h 28m Denver DEN 17:50 → LAX 19:27UA 1753 6h 57m 80% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754 4h 00m 64% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON