tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 3117 at 15:14, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 3117 SkyWest ACV 15:14 SEA 16:59 24% 7% 2.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest 3h 24m San Francisco SFO 18:46 → SEA 21:15UA 1097 7h 10m 96% 55%
UnitedDetails → ACV 16:02 → SFO 17:22UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest 3h 33m San Francisco SFO 20:55 → SEA 23:20UA 1007 7h 18m 97% 55%
UnitedDetails → ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:07UA 5313 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m San Francisco SFO 10:04 → SEA 12:11UA 500 6h 11m 96% 52%
UnitedDetails → ACV 12:30 → DEN 16:22UA 5966 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m Denver DEN 19:11 → SEA 21:00UA 2767 8h 30m 93% 43%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m San Francisco SFO 16:27 → SEA 18:47UA 2279 4h 42m 66% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON