tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 256 at 10:55, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 256 Southwest ALB 10:55 BNA 12:25 11% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Albany). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ALB 06:06 → BWI 07:33WN 167 2h 02m Baltimore BWI 09:35 → BNA 10:35WN 4738 5h 29m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → ALB 06:00 → ATL 08:31DL 2429 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 30m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → ALB 06:21 → PHL 07:40AA 5854 · flown by Piedmont 1h 55m Philadelphia PHL 09:35 → BNA 10:50AA 1320 5h 29m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → ALB 06:10 → ORD 07:47UA 2225 2h 50m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 7h 19m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → ALB 05:39 → CLT 07:47AA 440 1h 23m Charlotte CLT 09:10 → BNA 09:44AA 3328 5h 05m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → ALB 09:36 → DTW 11:25DL 3784 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 4h 27m 91% 77%
UnitedDetails → ALB 06:00 → IAD 07:35UA 4970 · flown by CommuteAir 55m Dulles IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366 4h 29m 83% 76%
DeltaDetails → ALB 16:58 → DTW 18:47DL 3809 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Detroit DTW 21:35 → BNA 22:15DL 2126 6h 17m 94% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ALB 06:05 → DTW 07:41DL 2996 49m Detroit DTW 08:30 → BNA 09:11DL 2682 4h 06m 69% 62%
UnitedDetails → ALB 14:50 → IAD 16:29UA 4942 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 13m Dulles IAD 17:42 → BNA 18:47UA 2264 4h 57m 74% 57%
AmericanDetails → ALB 18:44 → ORD 20:21AA 4240 · flown by Envoy 1h 09m Chicago ORD 21:30 → BNA 23:11AA 2556 5h 27m 75% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON