Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4492 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day YX 4492 ALB 06:12 → DCA 08:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5501 ALB 18:25 → DCA 20:08 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4492 Republic	ALB 06:12	DCA 08:10	5%	3%	0.9%	no record
OH 5186 PSA	ALB 10:34	DCA 12:17	15%	7%	1.4%	no record
OH 5454 PSA	ALB 14:21	DCA 16:04	20%	10%	1.4%	no record
AA 5501 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ALB 18:25	DCA 20:08	26%	12%	1.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON