tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Albany). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ALB 06:00 → ATL 08:31DL 2429 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961 6h 12m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → ALB 05:45 → LGA 06:47DL 5454 · flown by Endeavor 2h 43m New York LGA 09:30 → DFW 12:09DL 856 7h 24m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → ALB 06:21 → PHL 07:40AA 5854 · flown by Piedmont 3h 04m Philadelphia PHL 10:44 → DFW 13:21AA 3326 8h 00m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → ALB 05:39 → CLT 07:47AA 440 1h 38m Charlotte CLT 09:25 → DFW 11:12AA 575 6h 33m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → ALB 08:00 → PHL 09:21AA 5901 · flown by Piedmont 2h 32m Philadelphia PHL 11:53 → DFW 14:32AA 241 7h 32m 92% 77%
UnitedDetails → ALB 06:10 → ORD 07:47UA 2225 2h 42m Chicago ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441 8h 02m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → ALB 09:36 → DTW 11:25DL 3784 · flown by SkyWest 1h 20m Detroit DTW 12:45 → DFW 14:32DL 1041 5h 56m 93% 75%
UnitedDetails → ALB 06:00 → IAD 07:35UA 4970 · flown by CommuteAir 55m Dulles IAD 08:30 → DFW 10:53UA 2471 5h 53m 83% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ALB 17:10 → ORD 18:39UA 538 1h 11m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 6h 26m 61% 30%
AmericanDetails → ALB 18:44 → ORD 20:21AA 4240 · flown by Envoy 1h 04m Chicago ORD 21:25 → DFW 23:48AA 2281 6h 04m 61% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON