Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 178 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 178 Southwest	ALB 08:00	MDW 09:24	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 179 Southwest Flight history →	ALB 19:22	MDW 20:50	29%	8%	3.3%	90%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Albany). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ALB 06:06 → BWI 07:33WN 167	2h 01m Baltimore	BWI 09:34 → MDW 10:47WN 1071	5h 41m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	ALB 06:00 → ATL 08:31DL 2429	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 56m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	ALB 06:05 → DTW 07:41DL 2996	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor	4h 09m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	ALB 09:36 → DTW 11:25DL 3784 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	4h 10m	91%	73%
Delta Details →	ALB 13:14 → DTW 15:03DL 3810 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	6h 15m	100%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON