Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2225 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–44%.

Safest bet that day UA 2225 ALB 06:10 → ORD 07:47 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 538 ALB 17:10 → ORD 18:39 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2225 United Flight history →	ALB 06:10	ORD 07:47	12%	5%	0.7%	86%
UA 1215 United	ALB 09:54	ORD 11:21	14%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 3400 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ALB 07:17	ORD 08:47	15%	5%	0.9%	89%
OO 6233 SkyWest	ALB 11:59	ORD 13:28	22%	11%	1.6%	no record
UA 463 United	ALB 12:42	ORD 13:57	32%	15%	1.9%	no record
AA 4240 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ALB 18:44	ORD 20:21	39%	24%	2.5%	79%worse than usual
UA 538 United Flight history →	ALB 17:10	ORD 18:39	44%	25%	1.3%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON