Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5854 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ALB 06:21	PHL 07:40	14%	4%	0.8%	86%
AA 5901 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ALB 08:00	PHL 09:21	16%	9%	0.0%	84%
AA 6026 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ALB 10:49	PHL 12:09	18%	6%	0.0%	82%
AA 6028 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ALB 14:55	PHL 16:18	24%	13%	2.8%	76%
AA 6024 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ALB 18:29	PHL 19:51	31%	14%	6.5%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON