tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3984 at 13:55, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3984 Southwest AMA 13:55 AUS 15:29 17% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → AMA 05:01 → DFW 06:22AA 4257 · flown by Envoy 1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:37 → AUS 08:49AA 1643 3h 48m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → AMA 09:00 → IAH 10:52UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 28m Houston IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa 6h 29m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → AMA 08:00 → DEN 08:39UA 5221 · flown by SkyWest 1h 26m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 5h 20m 91% 75%
AmericanDetails → AMA 07:19 → DFW 08:40AA 4258 · flown by Envoy 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:59 → AUS 12:12AA 1070 4h 53m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → AMA 15:18 → IAH 17:10UA 4816 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 08m Houston IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621 6h 07m 97% 68%
AmericanDetails → AMA 10:15 → DFW 11:36AA 3920 · flown by Envoy 1h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:30 → AUS 14:42AA 1073 4h 27m 96% 63%
UnitedDetails → AMA 17:20 → DEN 18:06UA 4743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 21m Denver DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943 6h 24m 89% 55%
AmericanDetails → AMA 16:28 → DFW 17:50AA 3613 · flown by Envoy 3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:35 → AUS 22:39AA 972 6h 11m 98% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON