Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4257 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4257 AMA 05:01 → DFW 06:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3613 AMA 16:28 → DFW 17:50 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4257 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 05:01	DFW 06:22	6%	5%	1.5%	94%
AA 4258 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 07:19	DFW 08:40	9%	5%	1.5%	89%
AA 3920 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 10:15	DFW 11:36	10%	5%	1.3%	90%
AA 3198 American	AMA 05:54	DFW 07:16	12%	8%	2.8%	no record
AA 3789 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 18:55	DFW 20:16	19%	9%	1.8%	70%
AA 3383 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 15:10	DFW 16:39	19%	7%	1.5%	84%
AA 3613 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 16:28	DFW 17:50	20%	8%	1.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON