tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2689 at 17:05, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2689 Southwest AMA 17:05 LAS 17:18 33% 15% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Amarillo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AMA 08:00 → DEN 08:39UA 5221 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 6h 24m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → AMA 05:01 → DFW 06:22AA 4257 · flown by Envoy 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:49 → LAS 09:38AA 1550 6h 37m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → AMA 09:00 → IAH 10:52UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 28m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 8h 37m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → AMA 07:19 → DFW 08:40AA 4258 · flown by Envoy 1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:32 → LAS 11:21AA 1482 6h 02m 100% 66%
UnitedDetails → AMA 15:18 → IAH 17:10UA 4816 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 29m Houston IAH 18:39 → LAS 19:57UA 2406 6h 39m 92% 63%
AmericanDetails → AMA 10:15 → DFW 11:36AA 3920 · flown by Envoy 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:40 → LAS 14:28AA 2376 6h 13m 97% 55%
UnitedDetails → AMA 17:20 → DEN 18:06UA 4743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Denver DEN 20:54 → LAS 21:53UA 624 6h 33m 93% 49%
AmericanDetails → AMA 16:28 → DFW 17:50AA 3613 · flown by Envoy 3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:18 → LAS 22:23AA 2371 7h 55m 98% 48%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AMA 17:20 → DEN 18:06UA 4743 · flown by SkyWest 59m Denver DEN 19:05 → LAS 20:08UA 655 4h 48m 61% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON